Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 197.222877 234.262042 278.412466 335.522656 408.328708 499.266293 6.234164e+02
2025-10-05 160.202455 207.319671 270.194798 362.531725 498.780979 699.498748 1.032106e+03
2025-10-12 137.587125 189.169600 263.856270 384.600231 584.789939 923.912441 1.594562e+03
2025-10-19 121.109281 174.456026 256.794691 400.702666 664.025078 1169.189926 2.351898e+03
2025-10-26 107.854186 161.293893 248.191240 410.345887 733.650024 1428.347866 3.345318e+03
2025-11-02 96.494460 148.799925 237.608230 412.804345 789.380125 1686.789606 4.592669e+03
2025-11-09 85.804436 135.565448 223.022182 403.556594 816.822680 1894.374282 5.938827e+03
2025-11-16 77.019463 124.264374 209.835890 393.725398 839.412002 2103.797470 7.599352e+03
2025-11-23 69.605165 114.364714 197.596565 382.958148 856.083553 2308.503566 9.607924e+03
2025-11-30 67.714773 114.200193 203.994693 414.758482 996.424447 3017.192123 1.599921e+04
2025-12-07 63.442822 108.986592 199.381544 419.800919 1064.556623 3530.418384 2.303719e+04
2025-12-14 60.328767 105.605830 198.013988 432.496672 1162.388430 4268.223235 3.589065e+04
2025-12-21 56.101750 99.712601 190.765829 429.539304 1212.856687 4873.146627 5.239833e+04
2025-12-28 55.102567 100.226690 197.774167 467.019305 1427.577220 6677.973065 1.151022e+05
2026-01-04 53.598027 99.490482 201.807216 497.599980 1638.708150 8922.281268 2.700903e+05
2026-01-11 51.686401 97.644152 202.903144 519.975156 1833.774410 11577.577372 6.878344e+05
2026-01-18 49.460521 94.850194 201.239294 533.408791 2000.580958 14539.422307 1.945767e+06
2026-01-25 46.965749 91.187223 196.847262 536.838066 2123.438448 17539.756407 6.197377e+06
2026-02-01 43.998971 86.166626 188.282589 523.950165 2153.628425 19590.260269 1.840585e+07
2026-02-08 41.277986 81.471504 180.003182 510.278732 2173.893364 21704.319567 7.574680e+07
2026-02-15 38.757512 77.026343 171.861448 495.341202 2179.910697 23749.977815 5.729963e+08
2026-02-22 38.621187 78.166087 179.022677 539.564942 2597.456605 36581.559664 NaN
2026-03-01 37.160048 75.993877 176.685317 546.606563 2777.201157 46198.570838 NaN